Only The Differentiated Survive

The 6 Trends Shaping Tequila in 2026

Post-pandemic tequila in the United States has enjoyed an unprecedented increase in consumer attention, sales, and cultural awareness. But now, changes in behavior, competition, pricing, and more are seismically shifting the landscape of the tequila business.

In this forecast from The Tequila Report, we introduce six data-backed trends that are shaping tequila in 2026 and beyond. Research for this forecast comes from our twice-annual survey of American tequila consumers and The Tequila Report readers, with supplemental data from other sources.

SUMMARY:
The tequila boom in America is not ending, it's fragmenting.

For years, tequila was treated as a monolithic category with unified market dynamics. That era is over.

The market has bifurcated into two distinct segments with fundamentally different economics, consumer behaviors, and growth trajectories. Mass-market brands controlling 71% of sales are declining. Craft tequila brands are surging, growing 28.5% annually. This split defines tequila's future.

The consequences are severe. Approximately 2,500 tequila brand trademarks are registered with Mexico's regulatory body, yet only 900 are viable competitors. The rest are dormant, abandoned, or never intended for U.S. sale. This brand proliferation masks a harder reality: consolidation is inevitable.

Four structural factors guarantee it. First, consumer preferences lock in early and remain stable. Ninety percent of engaged tequila drinkers maintain a single go-to brand. Only 28% of consumers try three or more new tequilas monthly, yet 20 new brands launch every month. Supply vastly exceeds demand for trial. 

Second, mass-market consumers prioritize price and accessibility over innovation, while craft enthusiasts represent a narrow demographic: older, affluent, and concentrated among households earning $170,000 or more. 

Third, most emerging tequila brands depend on continuous venture capital fundraising. Economic downturns will trigger rapid closures and consolidations. 

Fourth, 56% of consumers already believe there are too many tequila brands in the market.Brands that survive will be those that differentiate authentically. The most obvious differentiator - additive-free status - has become commoditized. Eighty-four percent of engaged consumers demand additive-free tequila, yet the attribute no longer distinguishes much when claimed by hundreds of competitors. It is the new 100% agave. Instead, brands must invest in genuine production differentiation that cannot be easily replicated.

But differentiation means nothing if consumers are unaware of it. Retail and bar staff recommendations influence fewer than 3 in 10 consumers. Brands must become media companies, deploying owned digital channels - social media, websites, email, online education courses - to educate consumers directly. Tequila tourism is emerging as a parallel strategy, with distilleries transforming into destination experiences.

Yet even sophisticated differentiation and education strategies face two headwinds. First, pricing ceilings are real and inflexible. Eighty-seven percent of consumers will not pay more than $55 for blanco tequila, regardless of income level. Economic uncertainty is already driving trade-down behavior, with premium bottles ($100+) declining 18% in late 2025. 

Second, some brands are pursuing a false solution: limited editions and scarcity-driven models. While generating short-term social media buzz and margin expansion, this strategy mirrors bourbon's cautionary trajectory - creating consumer fatigue, preventing core brand loyalty, and ultimately contracting the category to its most obsessive, affluent core.

The tequila industry faces a strategic inflection point in 2026. Brands that survive consolidation will be those that differentiate authentically through production choices, educate relentlessly through owned channels, maintain pricing discipline, and build sustainable loyalty around core products rather than chasing perpetual novelty.

Only the differentiated will survive. But differentiation requires more than messaging. It requires action, investment, and discipline.

The 6 Tequila Trends for 2026

Trend #1: There are Two Tequila Markets
Trend #2: Consolidation is Coming
Trend #3: The Drive for Differentiaton
Trend #4: The Evolution of Tequila Education
Trend #5: Innovation Creates Attrition
Trend #6: A Problem with Pricing

About The Tequila Report

The Tequila Report is a digital magazine and email newsletter for tequila consumers and industry professionals that includes news, reviews, interviews, analysis, events calendars, rankings, and more. 

The free email newsletter sends each edition’s new stories direct to subscribers’ inbox every-other-Tuesday. Join 50,000 other subscribers and get The Tequila Report. For private or small group briefings on this forecast, media inquiries, or requests to use this material, please contact Jay Baer, Editor of The Tequila Report, via [email protected]